True or False

True or false: the science behind believing something is right

A large chuck of today’s debate revolves around whether a statement can be considered true or false. Just think about CNN’s presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden this June. During their debate, CNN fact-checked all the claims made by both candidates behind the scenes. The result? Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump made false and misleading claims. Joe Biden made at least nine false claims in the debate, while Trump made even more: over 30 false claims [1]. He was corrected by the moderators, which frustrated him. Later, he claimed on Truth Social that the debate leaders were biased against him.

However, most of the time political leaders aren’t fact-checked in real time during interviews or when speaking directly to their followers. This raises the questions: when do people see something as true or false? Why do people believe certain statements, even though they are falsely made? This becomes even more relevant given all the fake news circulating on the internet nowadays. Let’s take a deeper dive into this topic and find out when people see something as true or false.

Cognitive Ease and Strain

Daniel Kahneman, a well-known behavioral economist, argues that we are more likely to believe something when it is easy to do so. While this may seem obvious, there’s more beneath the surface. When people experience cognitive ease[2], they tend to perceive information as more attractive and true. On the contrary, when something causes discomfort, it can lead to cognitive strain [3], prompting people to view information as less credible. Essentially, our brains measure how easy we can process information to determine its truthfulness.

Cognitive ease can be enhanced by using large, clear fronts or easy percentages (e.g. 50% instead of 16%). This tactic is frequently used in marketing and sales. Another powerful tool is the repetition of a message, a strategy often used in politics. These techniques help people feel more confident and comfortable with certain situations or messages, making them more receptive to the content.

System 1 vs. System 2: The Two Modes of Thinking

These two concepts are also closely related to how we make decisions. According to Kahneman, the human brain operates in two modes, which he calls system 1 and system 2. System 1 is automatic, fast and often irrational, while system 2 is slower, more deliberate, and reflective, paying conscious attention to information. Hence, this duality was the basis for his book, Thinking, Fast and Slow [4].

Generally, system 1 sends suggestions to system 2, which then assesses and forms them into beliefs – statements we consider to be true or false. Most of the decisions we make are automatically handled by system 1. And given the fact that humans make around 35.000 decisions per day, we can be thankful for this efficiency. Imagine if you had to make all these decisions deliberately- our brains would crash.

When cognitive ease shifts to cognitive strain due to complex or effortful tasks, we switch from system 1 to system 2. A good example I like to think of is during early driving lessons. During our first driving lesson, each decision is new, and therefore a deliberate effort managed by System 2. But over time, we start to get used to driving and things become more automatic, as we slip into “autopilot” mode, creating habits that reduce cognitive strain. Nonetheless, relying on system 1 isn’t always beneficial. Often, we base decisions on quick, automatic shortcuts rather than rational thinking, which can lead to errors in judgment. We may struggle with reasoning or become resistant to new information (confirmation bias).

By having a better understanding of the different cognitive processes, we can draw three important takeaways. First and foremost, it helps us understand why people may believe certain claims, even when they’re not true. Second, we might consider applying techniques to increase cognitive ease to make our messages more persuasive. Finally, seeking out cognitive strain can also help us. By challenging ourselves with new ideas and unfamiliar topics, we not only expand our knowledge, but also gain insights to other people’s perspectives, even when we may not agree with them.